Buckets and Breakdowns: Inside the Numbers of NBA Shooting Performance”
Authors: Ryan So(project lead), Song Chen, Isaac Yu, Preston Gao, Aadi Malaviya
Introduction
In the past decade, NBA offenses have extended outwards as statistics showed that three-pointers at face value are more valuable than any other shot excluding layups. This leads to the mid-range jump shot, once one of the primary shots taken on the court, a lost art in the modern age. In the 21st century, technology has advanced quicker than anyone could have predicted. To a similar degree, sports teams are pouring an increased amount of money into analysts diving deep into advanced statistics to find an edge over other teams. But for the casual fans, us included, it can be hard to understand why teams make the decisions they do. Whether it’s drafting a certain player, changing the offensive scheme, or deciding how many minutes each player deserves, we can’t understand it all.
However, we hope to show readers of all backgrounds a little more about the impact of the three-point shot in the NBA.
How shot selection has changed over time?
When talking about shooting performance, it is important to study which shots have been more productive/efficient for teams and the league as a whole. By analyzing shot selection, we get an inside look on how the game has changed over the decades.
Visualizing Shot Trends (1996–2024)
Clearly, the amount of 3-point shot (blue) attempts have increased almost exponentially since the 2011–2012 season, while contrarily, the amount of mid-range shots (red) have decreased in nearly the same year. From the 1996–1997 season, we see that teams, on average, take more mid-range shots and rarely take 3-point shots. However in the 2023–2024 season, we see that teams now take more 3-point shots and rarely take mid-range shots. This change in shot selection emphasizes a major shift in the game’s dynamic. Teams are becoming more productive from the 3-point line and have abandoned the mid-range shot. You can also examine a slight increase in “In The Paint” attempted shots (“In the Paint” refers to the colored rectangular area under the basketball hoop) and a relatively stable amount of “Restricted Area” shots attempted (the “Restricted Area” refers to the 4 feet area around the basket).
How has 3-point shooting affected total game scoring?
The 3-point line was introduced to the NBA in the 1979–1980 season, marking a significant shift in the way the game was played. This line plot shows the average 3-point shooting percentage by year, highlighting the evolution of 3-point shooting accuracy over time.
Initially, we see a sharp increase in 3-point accuracy as players and teams adapted to this new aspect of the game. The average 3-point shooting percentage reached a peak of around 35% in 1995. This period marks a stabilization in accuracy, indicating that players had largely adjusted to the mechanics and strategies associated with 3-point shooting.
Considering that 3-point shooting percentages have remained relatively steady since 1995, this line plot highlights an interesting trend. After 1995, we observed a consistent increase in both the average number of 3-pointers attempted and made per game. Alongside this rise in 3-point activity, total game scoring also shows a gradual upward trend, especially in recent years. This correlation suggests that the increased reliance on the 3-point shot has contributed significantly to higher overall scoring in the NBA.
Additionally, Steph Curry, drafted in 2009, is widely regarded as a transformational player who revolutionized the use of the 3-point shot. We notice a sharper increase in average in 3-point attempts and makes immediately following Curry’s entry into the league. This trend correlates with an increase in total points scored, underscoring the growing importance of 3-point shooting and Curry in influencing offensive strategies and shaping modern basketball.
‘Look at Curry Man’: 3-Point & Mid-Range Shooting Shifts
Stephen Curry was drafted as the #7 overall player in the 2009 NBA draft as a young 21 year old. To showcase this change in shot selection, examining shooting trends both before and after Curry’s debut is important.
The trend is shown even clearer by these two violin plots. Before Curry was drafted, the median number of shots for 3-pointers and mid-range shots was approximately 1,196 and 2,334 attempts respectively. However after Curry was drafted, the median number of shots for 3-pointers and mid-range shots was 2,191 and 1,552 attempts respectively. This relationship infers that ever since Curry entered the league, teams started opting towards more 3-point shots rather than mid-range shots as players become more efficient and productive outside the arc. In addition, the shot choices teams decided to emphasize seemed to vary immensely after Curry was drafted. This indicates that different teams are specializing in 3-pointers while other teams are more well-rounded inside and outside the arc.
To explore this idea a bit further, we implemented a simple logistic regression model predicting whether or not a season occurred before or after Curry was drafted based on the variables: corner 3-point field goals attempted & shot percentage, top of the key 3-point field goals attempted & shot percentage, mid-range field goals attempted & shot percentage. The model achieved an accuracy score of 87%, meaning the model was correctly able to determine whether a season occurred before or after Curry was drafted 87% of the time. The confusion matrix of the model is shown above.
How does height affect the shot selection of the player?
Diving into the realm of shot selections, determining the correlation between a player’s height and their average shot distances was brought to our attention. In the NBA, it is common to see taller players leveraging their height and physicality to consistently receive rebounds and pose a true defensive problem to the opposing teams. In addition to their defensive utility, these players may also use their height as an advantage to score against undersized players. Conversely, shorter players may be seen as having a disadvantage when competing with the taller players on the court — who typically reside near the rim — due to their lack of strength, visibility, and reach. Thus, the players’ height would help dictate the role and area in which a player may be on the court, influencing their shot selection and efficiency.
By performing an analysis of all the present players within the 2023–2024 NBA season, insights can be drawn regarding the shot preferences of players within various height groups. We classified the players into 3 different height categories: short (under 6 feet 2 inches), average (between 6 feet 2 inches and 6 feet 8 inches), and tall (above 6 feet 8 inches) players in the league. Within the categories, there consisted of 21 players under 6 feet 2 inches, 285 players between 6 feet 2 inches and 6 feet 8 inches, and 188 players over 6 feet 8 inches. From there, we analyzed the percentage of shots taken at various distances on the court that helped cultivate the overall shots that each height group took throughout the season.
From this stacked bar chart, we observed that players under 6 feet 2 inches shoot more shots in the 25–29 feet shots (or 3-pointers) than the other two height groups. Unsurprisingly, the average and taller height groups choose to roam more consistently within the ranges of 0 to 10 feet (or layups and short floaters) and are less reliant on getting points from 3-pointers when compared with shorter players. We also observed that the height group between 6 feet 2 inches and 6 feet 8 inches contains the most well-rounded shot selection compared to the shorter and taller players in the league, as their shot percentages within each distance differ the least. Furthermore, there seems to be a minimal difference in the average shot selection within shooting distances between 5–15 feet across all height fields, indicating that height is not a significant factor in influencing shot selection in those distances.
To gain a different perspective, we analyzed the percentages of shots made per zone for each height group and split the distances of the court into 5 popular categories: Restricted Area (0–3 feet), Non-Restricted Area/Paint (4–9 feet), Mid-Range (10–22 feet), Corner Three (22 feet), and Above the Break Three (23–30 Feet). This line chart unveils many interesting patterns and insights. Players over 6 feet 8 inches have greater percentage differences for zones where they excel when compared to margins for zones where shorter players excel. For example, the “restricted area” has a percentage difference of roughly 20% from players below 6 feet 2 inches to above 6 feet 8 inches. On the other hand, one of the most successful zones for players under 6 feet 2 inches, such as “above the break three”, only has a difference of 5% when compared to players above 6 feet 8 inches. This helps indicate that players above 6 feet 8 inches are more efficient at scoring in zones they already excel at.
Furthermore, it’s evident that taller players — due to their ability to oversee shorter players and having a higher reach — are more efficient in scoring at zones closer to the basket. Players above 6 feet 8 inches are highly successful when it comes to scoring in shot zones such as “restricted area” and the “paint,” indicating that they are more capable of scoring contested shots compared to other height groups. While taller players are more dominant near the rim, shorter players are more efficient in scoring near the 3-point line, either near the corners or simply above the arc. This data helps support their role as perimeter players, as their shooting efficiencies near the 3-point line help space out the floor to the corners or out of the “paint.” Given the different players and their heights in the NBA, strategic roles are assigned to best align with the players’ height-based skills and improve the shooting efficiencies of the overall team.
Do better shooting teams win more?
One thing we wanted to examine was the relationship between shooting percentages at different distances from the basketball hoop to answer some of our questions. Do teams that can hit a mid range shot also shoot the three ball? Do teams that shoot better from the free throw line win more games? For many of these questions, the answer is not really. We performed data analysis on statistics from the 2023–2024 NBA season to create this heat map showing the strength or lack of between each variable.
The heatmap shows that for many of these relationships there is only a slight positive correlation. However, when looking at the data in relation to wins, the correlation with 3 point percentage stands out at 0.86. Then looking at the coefficient of determination, we can reason that 74% of the variance of a team’s wins is explained by their 3 point percentage.
What can we predict for this upcoming season?
First, we must look at historic data that is still relevant to this season which is examining the 82 games from last season.
The graph above shows each NBA team’s 3 point percentage and wins from the 2023–2024 season. It’s pretty clear that shooting better correlates with more wins and building off the last section, only the three point shot matters. The different teams are also clustered by playoff performance or failure to reach the playoffs. One thing that stands out is the green dot all the way on the left side which represents the Orlando Magic. The only other team to make the playoffs and shoot below league average were the Philadelphia 76ers and both of these teams were first round exits.
However, we can’t simply predict a team’s performance based off of last year. Different variables including injuries, trades, and changes in coaching staff and at the management level all affect a team’s performance. The scatterplot above shows how teams are currently shooting as well as how many wins they’re on track to reach if you were to simply multiply their win percentage by the 82 game season. Though imperfect, noted by the Cavs with an estimated 77 wins(41.5% from 3), this visual generally shows how well a team is performing relative to their shooting. The green regression line based on last year’s data implies that an increase per percentage point equates to a little over 8 wins throughout the season. We can then use this line to analyze a team’s current performance, such as the OKC Thunder who are winning a lot more games than they should, at least according to their shooting percentages. However, the season is far from over and most likely, teams will fall closer to the regression line. But if the Cavs keep it up, they could be looking at a historic season. Though different in so many ways, the 2016 Golden State Warriors led by Steph Curry and Klay Thompson had similar stats averaging 41.6% from beyond the arc resulting in a record breaking 73–9 season.
Conclusion
Over the decades, the NBA has seen major transformations driven by advancements in shot selection, the emergence of influential players, and more efficient team strategy. This article explores these hidden scoring trends and highlights the impact of these changes.
Our findings prove that in the modern era, teams are choosing to prioritize the 3-point shot in replacement of the mid-range shot. Stephen Curry, renowned as the greatest 3-point shooter of all time, has been instrumental in revolutionizing the game’s approach to shot selection. The data not only underscores his impact but also demonstrates how 3-point shooting percentages serve as a strong indicator of a team’s success, solidifying the importance of this evolution in modern basketball strategy.
