Predicting Art Prices at Auction: Almost Impossible?

Authors: Allen Chen (Project Lead), Zya Fees, Sarasi Rout, Jessica Yao, Shaina Grover

Introduction

Are art prices subjective? This question gripped the world’s attention in November 2024, when a seemingly mundane artwork consisting of a banana duct-taped to a wall was sold at a Sotheby’s auction for a shockingly high price of $6.2 million. As Newton once said, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” However, this analysis will attempt to make sense of the turbulent landscape of art prices at auctions and provide a firm basis as to how these prices can be evaluated following an objective measure. Through this process, the presence of signatures on an artwork, its condition, and other metrics can be used to predict art prices at auctions.

Art prices by Condition and Year Created

Two factors that play a significant role in determining an artwork’s price are age and condition. In general, the better the condition of an artwork, the better the artwork’s original ideas, style, and creativity are visible and understandable. Over time, even the best-kept artwork starts to naturally degrade, making artwork from older time periods rare and difficult to find.

The heatmap above displays the average price of artwork based on its condition and the year it was made. We see that artwork in pristine condition from 1975–1999 has the highest average selling price. Although this is an average price, it is still an interesting anomaly. Generally, older artworks in better condition tend to be valued at higher prices, on average. However, in this case, it is likely due to the shift towards contemporary and post-modern movements during the late 20th century. This value is comparable to those in “very good” condition from the same time period, where the artwork’s value drops to $2,288 on average, which is 12% of the value of those in “pristine” condition. Similarly, for artwork from 1900–1924, the jump is $12,000 to $1,845. The stark contrast between art prices between “pristine” and “very good” demonstrates the importance of well-preserved art, especially because with older artwork it becomes difficult to restore, making the condition a crucial factor for art buyers.

On the other hand, it is important to note that for newer artworks between 2000–2025, the difference between average art prices is not that significant, which implies that for newer artwork, buyers prioritize factors such as artist reputation and demand. Given that these art pieces are at most 25 years old at this time, they are significantly easier to repair and preserve. Ultimately, the impact of the condition is more evident in the price of older artworks, whereas buyers shift their focus to other factors for newer pieces.

Art Prices and Time Period

The graph below depicts the top 10 periods that had the most art created, showcasing a diverse range of styles and movements. These include Surrealism, Abstract, Abstract Expressionism, Minimalism, Realism, Conceptual, Impressionism, Expressionism, Pop Art, and Geometric Abstraction. Notably, movements like Abstract Expressionism, with its emphasis on spontaneity and emotional intensity as seen in Jackson Pollock’s works, and Pop Art, which incorporated popular culture imagery as exemplified by Andy Warhol’s “Campbell’s Soup Cans,” have had profound influences on modern art. These movements reflect significant artistic innovations and continue to influence contemporary art, providing a rich context for understanding the evolution and diversity of art throughout history.

Based on the graph above, abstract expressionism had the highest overall prices, while pop art had a huge range of prices, skewed towards the higher end. Expressionism and geometric abstractionism did not vary significantly in prices. Additionally, the rest of the period art pieces’ distribution of prices were relatively similar. This price distribution offers interesting insights into the art market’s valuation of different movements, potentially reflecting factors such as historical significance, artist reputation, and collector preferences. The high prices for abstract expressionism might indicate its enduring appeal and importance in art history, while the wide range of pop art prices could suggest a diverse market with both accessible and highly sought-after pieces.

In exploring the relationship between art movements and time periods, several notable trends emerge in the pricing of artworks. Abstract Expressionism from the post-war period commands the highest prices, reflecting its historical significance and emotional intensity. This aligns with the movement’s cultural importance and the enduring appeal of artists like Jackson Pollock. On the other end of the spectrum, Pop Art and Geometric Abstraction from the modern period fetch the lowest prices, possibly due to market saturation or changing tastes. Other high-value categories include contemporary Pop Art, 19th-century Realism, and contemporary Abstract Expressionism, each valued for different reasons ranging from artist reputation to historical significance.

Overall, the contemporary period shows the highest prices for art sold, while the modern period has the least. This trend reflects current market preferences and the increasing financialization of art, with collectors and investors viewing contemporary art as both culturally relevant and potentially lucrative (Dinga, 2023). The varied pricing of Pop Art across different periods demonstrates how an art movement’s value can appreciate over time, with artists like Andy Warhol seeing significant posthumous value increases. These observations highlight the complex factors influencing art valuation, including historical context, artist reputation, rarity, and current market demands. It’s important to note that while these trends provide insight into general market behavior, individual artworks may deviate based on specific factors such as provenance and condition.

Art Prices and Signatures

The figure below illustrates the distribution of art prices based on whether the piece was signed or unsigned.

Due to the wide variety of signatures within the dataset, this variable was simplified to be whether or not the piece included a signature, no matter its location. As shown in the violin plot, the prices’ distributions varied slightly regarding the inclusion of a signature. Unsigned art pieces had a more concentrated distribution around lower prices than signed art pieces, with a more considerable variance. Due to the more concentrated distribution of unsigned art, this may indicate that unsigned art prices are more predictable. Even though the range was larger for signed art, both signed and unsigned art prices were right-skewed, with higher prices increasing the average. Unsigned art pieces had a lower average price of about $4257, while signed art prices had a higher average of about $7398. This higher average price for signed artwork may be due to the higher range of values and larger outliers skewing this value.

With the higher variation of prices for signed art, it is likely that including a signature may sometimes increase the value of an art piece. This increase in value may result from the added level of validation. Seeing the signature allows the viewer to connect with the artist themselves as they interact with the handwriting and unique mark of the artist. This tangible connection may result in higher overall prices.

Artwork Titles and Auction Prices

The title of an artwork is often one of its most defining features. It carries meaning, provides context, and shapes how audiences interpret the piece. Some of the most iconic artworks in history are instantly recognizable by their titles alone, like Mona Lisa, The Starry Night, and The Scream. Beyond interpretation, titles can play a crucial role in branding and marketability. A memorable or evocative title can increase an artwork’s recognition and influence its desirability among collectors.

Using BERTopic, we grouped artwork titles into five coherent topics based on shared linguistic patterns, and we graphed the most frequent words occurring in each theme.

Taking a look at the top ten most frequent words in each topic, we assigned the following names to each topic:

• Topic 0: Seasons and Landscapes (205 artworks)
• Topic 1: Objects and Shapes (155 artworks)
• Topic 2: French (153 artworks)
• Topic 3: Colors and Nature (140 artworks)
• Topic 4: Untitled Works (101 artworks)

Several interesting insights emerge from these topics. Two of the topics, “Seasons and Landscapes” and “Colors and Nature” emphasize the natural world, which reflects how artists often take inspiration from the world around them and create art pieces that incorporate their observations. There are a notable number of artwork titles in French or containing French words, suggesting that the language or culture is a big motif in the art world. The last topic, “Untitled Works” is interesting because of its prevalence. Leaving a piece untitled allows more interpretation, but it may also make it harder for audiences to connect with the art or understand its context.

To understand whether these thematic clusters have an impact on the auction price, we also calculated the average price for each group. In order from highest to lowest:

• French: $9,319.87
• Objects and Shapes: $7,744.74
• Seasons and Landscapes: $6,255.93
• Untitled Works: $5,998.02
• Colors and Nature: $4,164.14

French-titled artworks have the highest average price, which may suggest a correlation with higher auction prices, however, the presence of outliers may skew the results.

The histograms illustrate how prices are distributed across different title themes, revealing insights into the relationship between an artwork’s title and its auction price. Across all themes, we observe a common pattern, where most artworks sell at lower prices, with a few outliers selling at exceptionally high prices. However, differences still exist when comparing each theme.

For “Untitled Works,” most artworks fall within the lower price range, with very few high-value outliers. This trend could indicate that buyers may have a harder time forming a strong emotional connection or understanding of artworks without a descriptive title. A title can provide context, meaning, or narrative, which might help potential buyers engage more deeply with the piece. Without this, untitled works may be perceived as more ambiguous, leading to generally lower valuations. The distribution of prices for “Colors and Nature” has a less drastic skew, with fewer extremely high-priced pieces and a much smaller range compared to other themes. Since many artists take inspiration from the world around them, this could make artworks less likely to stand out in the market, and they may not command the same sense of exclusivity as more distinctive or evocative titles.

Overall, these price distributions suggest that an artwork’s title plays a subtle role in shaping its market value. While the title can be a meaningful part of the artwork, many other factors, like the artist, condition, and movement, can also influence the final auction prices.

Results of Art Price Prediction

A random forest model was used to determine the importance of each feature in predicting the price of an artwork.

It shows that the year that the artwork was created, the artist’s name with the associated artwork, and certain movements are more influential factors in determining the price of the artwork. Art movements such as Pop art and Abstract Expressionism are gaining popularity amongst buyers because they appeal to people of all backgrounds whilst simultaneously allowing the content matter to be up to individual interpretation. Also, the condition of the artwork does not rank as high as the pop art movement in determining art price, which indicates that buyers are willing to pay high prices for a work of art in poorer condition because of its intrinsic value.

Conclusion

By looking at art prices from a more objective perspective, the view of a potential buyer determining an artwork’s price becomes more rational. The buyer’s thought process is key to determining the price of the artwork, and key factors such as the popularity of the artist, their associated art movement, and the year the artwork was created are what a buyer considers the most important when buying artwork at auction.

References

1. Andy Warhol Campbell’s Soup, 1968. Fine art original prints. (n.d.). https://www.masterworksfineart.com/artists/andy-warhol/campbells-soup
2. Andy Warhol’s 5 most famous artworks: Guide. MyArtBroker. (n.d.). https://www.myartbroker.com/artist-andy-warhol/guides/andy-warhols-5-most-famous-artworks
3. Dinga, H. (2023, October 4). The evolution of art throughout history. Medium. https://medium.com/@hilarion365/the-evolution-of-art-throughout-history-2382d4716dbb
4. Stoclet, N. (2024, November 21). A banana duct-taped to a wall sold for $6.2 million at auction-why?. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nataliestoclet/2024/11/20/banana-duct-taped-to-wall-is-going-for-over-1-million-at-auction-why/