The Ingredients of a Hit Show: Data Analysis on Popular Programs of the Food Network
Authors: Ryan Barney (Project Lead), Leo Cardozo, Jordyn Fuchs, Memphis Lau
Introduction:
Food connects us all. Regardless of your background and experiences, sharing good food in good company is always a great experience. In any culture, food is something to be celebrated, and for most people, food is simply something to be loved. In an effort to highlight this common love for food, the Food Network was created, where we could watch endless shows about food and eating. Our interests lie in our love for food, and in turn, the Food Network. We hope to develop a deeper understanding behind the data of the Food Network, looking into the different aspects that characterize our favorite shows.
Nutrition:
We began by investigating the nutritional value of different cuisines in an effort to better understand the dishes that we commonly see in cooking shows. For many viewers who are passionate about food, nutritional values are extremely important. We want to observe whether this is also important for the cooks preparing the food, as well as the judges deciding which dish wins. As such, looking into food nutrition provides an interesting insight. We seek to investigate whether nutrition plays a role in how often a certain type of cuisine appears in a show, as well as how the cuisine type being cooked can affect contestant performance. Taking a look at a dataset containing the nutritional value of a myriad of dishes, we obtained the following plot below.
These were the varying cuisines we studied and the relative nutritional value they have. To make the data more concise, we reduced a given cuisine type’s nutritional value to the ratio between its calories and its protein. Essentially, cuisines with a higher ratio of protein to calories can be considered healthier, as that cuisine would in turn have a lower proportion of calories from fat and carbs. From the plot, we see that certain cuisines, such as Chinese and Nordic, are denser in protein. Conversely, others, like Kosher or Central European, have higher calorie ratios. It’s clear that the different kinds of foods have vastly different nutritional aspects, presumably from the vast cultural differences that separate them. In turn, we want to investigate the prevalence of different cuisines on the Food Network, which we can do by taking a look at certain shows, namely Beat Bobby Flay.
Beat Bobby Flay:
Beat Bobby Flay is a TV cooking show hosted and starring the famous chef Bobby Flay. In this show, there are two rounds. The first round starts with two competitors, who face off in a timed battle to cook any dish using a special chosen ingredient. Guests, usually friends of Bobby Flay or celebrities, choose whose dish is better.
The winner moves on to the final round, now against Bobby Flay. The contestant can pick any dish he/she wants, and Bobby must make the same dish. After time runs out, 3 professional chefs come out and judge the dishes without knowing who made which dish. The dish with the most votes wins. It’s an extremely popular show, and a lot of that data for it is readily available online, allowing us to investigate our questions through the show.
Above, we found the prevalence of different cuisines prepared on Beat Bobby Flay. Notably, the most common cuisines are American and those of European descent. These cuisines can be generally attributed to a lower nutritional value, as their ratio of protein to calories is lower. At the same time, this means their fat content was likely higher. The higher fat content typically present in these dishes can mean more richness and flavor as well as a superior texture. As a result, foods with lower nutritional value may be valued for shows like Beat Bobby Flay, where you have limited time to develop a dish with a flavor profile the judges will like. After all, “fast” food can be good but also unhealthy. However, one notable confounding variable is a cook’s familiarity with a dish. If a cook knows a dish well, they’d be more inclined to cook it against Bobby Flay, regardless of nutritional value. This may lead certain cooks to favor dishes from their own cultural background or experiences, causing dish choice to be more about culture and experiences. Considering that a trend is still demonstrated towards “unhealthier” food types though, it’s clear that these foods are favored. Since this is most likely due to the time constraint present in the show, this same trend would likely show itself in other shows with similar time restrictions.
Next, we analyzed the win rate of Bobby Flay on his show. There appears to be no significant trend throughout the seasons. There definitely are some seasons with high win percentages for Bobby Flay (and some with low win percentages), but they appear randomly. When we look at individual episode numbers, Bobby Flay does not win as well in season openers (1st episode of every season), but dominates in season finales (final episodes of every season).
We also took a look at how Bobby Flay performs in different types of cuisines. Right away, we see that the three cuisines that Bobby Flay struggles the most against are Chinese, Eastern European, and Indian. On closer examination, his 33% win rate against Eastern European dishes is not significant, since he won 2 out of only 6 matchups. In addition, his low win rate with Indian dishes could also be argued as insignificant (5 wins out of 12 episodes). However, Chinese dishes have a large enough sample size, with 11 out of 20 contestants winning with their Chinese dish.
It is good to see that with American dishes (which make up a large percentage of all dishes), Bobby Flay’s win percentage remains similar to his overall win percentage across all episodes.
It is also a positive sign that there is no cuisine that Bobby Flay entirely dominates. There are no cuisines in which he wins above 75% of the time, meaning that a contestant will always have a chance despite which cuisine they pick.
This is Bobby Flay’s win percentage against judges who have appeared at least 10 times. Bobby Flay seems to struggle when Tricia Williams or Paulette Goto are his judges. He has won only 5 of 13 episodes (38%) with Tricia Williams, and only 5 of 11 episodes (45%) with Paulette Goto.
Meanwhile, Flay does very well when Lourdes Castro is a judge, winning 12 of 14 competitions (86%).
Bobby Flay wins 65.5% of episodes where at least one of the judges is new. This is not significantly different from his overall 63% win rate. We conclude that whether or not a judge was a first time judge does not have an effect on Bobby Flay’s win percentage.
Though only 25 contestants have appeared twice, this pie chart shows Bobby Flay is still very successful against those that come back.
Through all the possible significant trends we have explored in the show Beat Bobby Flay, the overall message is clear: Bobby Flay is one talented, talented chef, and there is nothing one could do to ensure victory against him.
We’ve found that a contestant is more likely to win in a Season Opener, but much less likely to win in a Season Finale. As for dishes, a Chinese dish has the highest chance to stump Bobby Flay, but he can win in any cuisine around the world. A contestant wins more often when Tricia Williams or Paulette Goto are judges, but good luck if Lourdes Castro is a judge; he loves Flay. It does not matter whether a judge is a first-time judge or not; the results will probably be the same. And lastly, repeating on the show (whether the first time was a success or not) does not bode well.
Overall, there were some interesting trends with our data, but no significant conclusions that could lead us to guiding a contestant to beat Bobby Flay.
Chopped:
Chopped is another cooking show hosted by Ted Allen on the Food Network. In this show, there are three rounds corresponding to three different meal types: appetizer, entree, and dessert. For each round, contestants are given four random ingredients and expected to prepare a dish that uses all of them. Often, the selected ingredients are not commonly paired together, but it is up to the contestants to prepare them so that each distinct flavor is complimented in the meal. The first round begins with four competitors, and at the end of each round the chef who made the worst meal is “chopped” until there is a winner.
The mystery ingredients are constantly changing from one episode to the next. This helps create variety among the meals being prepared to ensure episodes are unique, while also adding additional challenges for competitors. While repetition is not super common, there are certain ingredients that appear more frequently than others.
We were interested in exploring the relationship between ingredient frequency and the viewer ratings for that ingredient’s episode. Specifically, we hoped to discover if recurring ingredients tend to have higher episode ratings. The plots below compare the frequency of ingredients on Chopped and the average rating of the episode they appeared in.
The less commonly used ingredients have substantial variation in user ratings, but as the ingredient frequency increases, these ratings appear to become more stable. More distinct or uncommon ingredients are unlikely to be used multiple times, and thus there may be more uncertainty about how popular their episodes will perform in the ratings. Frequently used ingredients tend to be more reliably popular, and thus stabilize in the ratings. However, it also appears that over-use of ingredients can contribute to a slight decline in ratings. As seen in the plots, ingredients that appeared in the show four to six times seem to have the highest average rating at around 8.25. As ingredients are used more frequently than this, the ratings dip slightly with average ratings falling slightly below 8.
Conclusion:
From our analysis of different Food Network shows, we’ve found that there’s a lot of different questions that we can answer about our favorite shows. We’ve explored how different cuisines and conditions can affect win rates, as well as the prevalence of different ingredients and their effect on show ratings. Altogether, it’s clear that there is plenty that goes into a great Food Network show. They put together the ingredients, and the audience gets a meal.
Sources:
Github: BK Whoppers
