What Does it Take to Make it Into the NBA Hall of Fame?
By: Kunal Patil (Project Lead), Derek Nakagawa, Reilly Chin
Introduction:
The National Basketball League, or NBA, is home to some of the best athletes in the world across 30 teams and around 500 active players. In the history of the NBA, there have been many great players, including the likes of Micheal Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson, and Larry Bird, just to name a few that made huge impacts on the game of basketball and have been inducted into the NBA Hall of Fame.
Since the American Basketball Association, or ABA, and NBA merger in 1976, less than 40 players have made it into the Hall of Fame up until 2017. All of the other players who have been inducted played before the merger, and we don’t have accurate statistics to determine how great of a player they were.
How does the NBA determine which athlete makes it into the NBA Hall of Fame? Each player has their own unique strengths in scoring, rebounding, defending, or playmaking, so what does it take to make it into the Hall of Fame. Are there other factors like NBA All First Team Appearances and Championships Won that also affect their chances of making it? We will look at the NBA legends who made it into the Hall of Fame to see what they did to make it and set a few predictions on who we think will make it within the next few years.
Data Cleaning:
Our team used a dataset from Kaggle, which had the individual season stats for every player in the NBA from 1950 to 2017. However, we are only looking at 1979 to 2012 since that is when the NBA & ABA merged and created the 3 point line, which will allow us to make a fair comparison between players across the decades. In addition, prior to 1979, we do not have the stats of the players who played in the ABA. For example, Julius Erving was a great player in the 1970s, but we don’t have the stats to prove it in our dataset.
Fortunately, we didn’t have to deal with missing variables because since the merger, the NBA also started counting blocks, rebounds, and turnovers during games instead of only counting points, which is another reason we only looked at players who started their career after 1979.
Analysis of Offensive Stats:
For the offensive stats, we are primarily looking at career points, assists, and points per game to see how great these players were offensively. For the graph down below, we wanted to compare the number of career points and assists of a player to see if there were any correlation between points/assists and making it into the NBA Hall of Fame.
As we can see from the graphs, there is a slight correlation between the number of points/assists and being a Hall of Famer. It seems as though all players who have scored more than 20,000 points in their career are almost guaranteed to make it into the Hall of Fame, which only 14 players can claim to have done. In addition, players who provided more than 7,500 assists also seemed almost guaranteed to be inducted into the Hall of Fame with three exceptions, all of which are stated to be likely inducted in the coming years. However, we know that some players scored or assisted a lot per game but weren’t able to cross the 20,000 point mark due to injuries. One such player is Yao Ming who scored an average of 19 points per game but in only 8 seasons due to injuries. This is why in the next graph, we will also analyze points per game for each player.
The average NBA player scores a little more than 4 points per game but for NBA Hall of Famers, most of them get at least double that at 10 points per game. The only exceptions are Dikembe Mutombo and Dennis Rodman. Both of these players were known for their great lock-down defense and often led the league in steals and rebounds. With these few exceptions, it seems like the players need to average at least 10 points per game to be even considered to be in the Hall of Fame, while those who score above 20,000 are almost guaranteed a spot.
From the graph, we can see that all Hall of Fame Players’ points per game are within the top 25% of players in history. The lines on the graph represent the 75th, 90th, 95, and 99th percentiles of points per game. The majority of Hall of Famers get at least in the 90th percentile of scoring, which is around 14 points per game, while getting in the 99th percentile of about 19 points per game seems to almost guarantee a spot in the Hall of Fame. There is only one player who scored above 19 points per game (Mark Aguirre) not to be admitted into the Hall of Fame, which can change in the coming years.
We also have to take into consideration that standards might change throughout the years as players start to score more or less points during games, but at the moment, these are the standards to get into the Hall of Fame. Another thing to consider is that it could take 10 or more years after the player’s retirement to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. With that being said, we will also look at the defensive stats of players in the next section.
Analysis of Defensive Stats:
Scoring isn’t the only thing that defines a player. Their ability to defend, block, and steal the ball away from the opposition also is an important factor. Many great players throughout NBA’s history have been known for their lockdown defense, including Dennis Rodman, Gary Peyton, and Scottie Pippen, while others like Kobe Bryant & Micheal Jordan were great both offensively and defensively. When it comes to defense, the first two stats that come to mind are career steals and blocks, which we will analyze below.
After analyzing the total steals and blocks of a player’s career, we can see a couple of things. For one, players don’t have to be exceptional defensive players in order to make it into the Hall of Fame, while the leaders in block and steals make it into the Hall of Fame. However, all of the players in the Hall of Fame were in the top 25th percentile in both career steals and blocks, which is around 130 blocks and 300 steals. We found this statistic fascinating because some short players like Isiah Thomas clocked in 249 career blocks while standing just 5 foot 9 inches tall. Another thing to point out is that players with more than 2,000 steals or 2,250 blocks are more than likely going to make it into the Hall of Fame; the only three that haven’t are either on the 2022 Hall of Fame Nominee List or have broken the law. This comes to show that players don’t need to be offensively gifted in order to make it into the Hall of Fame.
The other defensive aspect that we wanted to analyze is the number of rebounds throughout the player’s career. We considered this a defensive stat because rebounding the ball means taking the ball away from the other team, which seems to be more defensive than offensive. With this in mind, grabbing rebounds and maintaining possession of the ball is so important, especially when the average field goal percentage is 45%, meaning that 55% of shots miss. With this in mind, we will look at how important rebounding is in determining if the player makes it into the Hall of Fame.
Once again, the lines on the graph represent the 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of the number of career rebounds and that all of the players who make it into the Hall of Fame clock in at least 2200 rebounds. This is compelling given that the top 75th percentile is around 1500 rebounds, and the 90th percentile is around 3500 rebounds. This means that all of the players placed higher than the 75th percentile, and the majority placed above the 90th percentile. Although rebounding is very important, it just doesn’t seem to impact the likelihood of getting into the Hall of Fame as 3 of the top 10 rebounders aren’t in the Hall of Fame, nor are candidates/nominees for the Hall of Fame. This comes to show that being an all-time rebounding leader isn’t as important as leading the league in blocks, steals, assists, or points scored.
Analysis of Championships and Individual Awards:
In this section, rather than looking at the player’s game-to-game stats, we will observe the importance of having various accolades and awards in being drafted into the Hall of Fame. Particularly, we will look at how the number of all-star appearances, MVPs, All-NBA first-team appearances, and championships that a player has affects their chances of making it into the Hall of Fame. Additionally, our data will only include players who were all-stars at least once since the awards we are analyzing are exceptionally difficult to achieve for any normal NBA player. Thus, we are really looking at how these awards can take a player from being just an all-star to a Hall of Fame talent.
First, we will look at how a player’s number of all-star appearances affects their chances at the Hall of Fame. Observe the following two histograms, which illustrate the distributions of all-star appearances among Hall of Fame players and non-Hall of Fame players, respectively.
As we can observe from the histogram on the right, the majority of players who were all-stars but not Hall of Famers were only an all-star once. Additionally, most Hall of Famers were an all-star at least 4 times. This means that, disregarding the few outliers, a player who is an all-star several times throughout their career is a Hall of Fame caliber player. This gives us an additional piece of information about what it takes to be in the Hall of Fame; it is crucial for a player to be at the top of the league for several seasons. A player who has only one or two incredible seasons does not have as solid of a chance at making the Hall of Fame as a player who played consistently well for several seasons. Additionally, these histograms tell that if a player made the all-star team 10 or more times throughout their career, they are practically guaranteed to make the Hall of Fame. This makes sense — only generationally talented players will be an all-star player 10 times.
Next, we will take a look at how a player’s All-NBA first-team appearances and MVPs impact their chances of making the Hall of Fame. It is important to note that these two awards are extremely difficult to achieve — even for all-star players. Only extraordinarily talented players are capable of attaining these awards, so it would make sense if achieving even a few of them would get a player a spot in the Hall of Fame. Observe the following two histograms:
This data tells us something interesting and relatively unintuitive: to be in the Hall of Fame, a player does not need to have been awarded an all-NBA first team or an MVP. Rather, attaining one of these awards almost guarantees you a spot in the Hall of Fame. Of all the NBA players to have played since the NBA/ABA merger, there has not been a single player that was an MVP but not inducted into the Hall of Fame. Additionally, there were only four players who had won an all-NBA first team but were not inducted into the Hall of Fame. The big takeaway from this data is that all-NBA first team and MVP awards are so selective that achieving one solidifies a player as a Hall of Fame talent.
Lastly, we will discuss the impact of winning NBA championships on making the Hall of Fame. In particular, we will look at how much winning several (more than 2) championships can boost a player’s chances of being inducted into the Hall of Fame. Observe the following bar graph:
This graph tells us that winning championships definitely has a positive effect on making the Hall of Fame; the strong majority of players who have won more than two championships are also in the Hall of Fame. However, at the same time, more than 75 players who have not won more than two championships are in the Hall of Fame. This indicates that winning several championships is not necessary to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, but there certainly exists a positive association between winning championships and being inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Analysis of Decade and Position:
In this section, we’ll be taking a closer look at the positions of Hall of Fame players and considering the relationship between their positions and the decade they were active. While our data focuses on the years from 1979 to 2012, we chose to look at active players in the 1970s, even before the ABA and NBA merger in 1976, up to the 1990s. We took into account each individual position: Forward (F), Guard (G), C (Center), C-F/F-C (Center-Forward), and F-G/G-F (Guard-Forward). This is important because it helps us better understand if a certain position made it more likely for a player to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Before we dive into each decade, observe the following bar graph displaying the distribution of positions among Hall of Fame players.
As we can see in the graph, Center-Forwards, Guard-Forwards, and Guards were the most frequently inducted players into the Hall of Fame. While there were slightly more Center-Forwards inducted than Guard-Forwards and Guards, there is no strong evidence that being a Center-Forward gave a player the best opportunity to showcase their capabilities and be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Nevertheless, the bottom two positions, Center and Forward, which make up less than a majority of the data, do provide some evidence that playing those positions made it more challenging to be inducted.
Since there was no substantial evidence showing how influential each position was overall, we decided to look at the decade each player was active in and analyze its relationship to their position. Since some players were active for more than one decade, we organized them in the decade they played the longest (e.g., a player who played from 1985–2000 would be placed in the 1990s decade). Observe the following line and bar graph depicting the distribution of positions with respect to each decade among Hall of Fame players
As we can see in the graphs, the position with the most Hall of Fame players changed from the 1970s to the 1990s. Initially, Guards and Center Forwards made up the majority of Hall of Fame players in the 1970s and Centers and Forwards had a smaller chance of getting inducted — proving our findings from above. However, as the decades progressed, it is clear that Center Forwards became one of the positions with the fewest Hall of Fame players inducted in the 1990s. While there was a steady decline of Center Forwards inducted over the decades, the amount of players inducted for the remaining positions stayed relatively consistent. Specifically in the 1980s and 1990s, the number of players per position inducted was close, and there were no apparent outliers. Therefore, at the start of the ABA-NBA merger in the 1970s, some positions were influential in receiving induction in the Hall of Fame, but as time progressed, a single position overall did not have a stronger influence than another on a player being inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Since the statistical evidence showed that position had a declining influence over the decades, we decided to divide the data into two groups to better see the correlation between position making into the Hall of Fame. One group was categorized as the Forwards, including C, F-C/C-F, and F, and consists of positions played by taller, bigger players. The other group was classified as the Guards, including G and F-G/G-F, and consists of positions played by shorter, smaller players. Breaking up the data into these two categories will allow us to see the correlation between position and making it into the Hall of Fame better.
Based on this bar graph, in the 1970s and 1990s, there were slightly more Guards inducted than Forwards. However, since the number of players inducted from each group was very close, the playing field seemed to be much fairer such that Forwards nor Guards were able to stand out more than the other. Nevertheless, in the 1980s, there was a larger difference in the amount of Forwards and Guards inducted. It appears that being an exceptional player and a Forward made it more likely to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Since taller players typically hold these roles, it appears that these bigger players had dominated the league during this time. Overall, this shows that playing a particular position can affect being inducted into the Hall of Fame, depending on the decade each player is active.
Conclusion:
Conclusively, there are several factors in a variety of aspects of the game that determine a player’s chances of making the Hall of Fame. In the section analyzing offensive stats, we noted that generally, a player needs to average 10 points per game (90th percentile of scoring) to be considered a Hall of Fame talent, while those who score over 20,000 points are guaranteed a spot. However, there are exceptions, of course; for example, players like Dennis Rodman, who may not have been the most outstanding offensive talents but shined defensively. In our analysis of defensive stats, we concluded that while a Hall of Fame player need not be defensively talented, strong defensive skills can certainly solidify your spot in the Hall of Fame. Additionally, non-game statistics, specifically awards like All-NBA first teams, MVPs, and championships, truly set players apart. Having several of these awards will certainly guarantee a player’s Hall of Fame status. Lastly, another important factor in determining a player’s Hall of Fame chances is the position they played, specifically by decade. We observed that certain correlations exist between these two factors; for example, forwards dominated the 1980s. All factors considered, it is without a doubt that being inducted into the Hall of Fame is an incredible accomplishment for any player, regardless of the statistics that got them in.
Check out our code for cleaning, analyzing, and visualizing the data on our Github!
